In the first of our “Down to the Wire” series featuring union mobilization reports from the states, Ed Sills, communications director at the Texas AFL-CIO, gives us an overview of the national and state races in the home of former exterminator and ex-member of Congress Tom DeLay. Sills will follow up on the action in Texas with a blog Nov. 8. Any union member, retiree or member of the media who would like to sign up for the Texas AFL-CIO news e-mail should e-mail Sills at ed@texasaflcio.org.

Even with outstanding election atmospherics entering the Nov. 7 election, Texas remains a tough place for the union movement to achieve a seismic political shift. As Texas AFL-CIO President Emmett Sheppard has said, it took us several election cycles to get into the predicament in which we find ourselves, and it will probably take us several to get out.

In congressional races, a 2003 mid-decade re-redistricting fiasco in Texas severely limited the playing field in a rapidly growing state that now has 32 members in the U.S. House. The redrawing of lines heavily tilted the majority of districts in one partisan direction (currently 21–11 Republican), but even in Texas, Democrats are poised for gains in 2006.

The contest drawing national attention is in Congressional District (CD) 22, the district formerly held by Rep. Tom DeLay (R). Former U.S. Rep. Nick Lampson is running a terrific campaign in a region that has voted heavily Republican in the past. Lampson was aided mightily by DeLay’s failed attempt to allow Republican leaders to select the nominee. DeLay’s machinations ultimately left the GOP without a candidate on the ballot, though a Libertarian is present. A write-in effort by Republicans on behalf of a Houston city councilwoman is widely regarded as a long shot.

In another key race in CD 17, U.S. Rep. Chet Edwards (D) represents the most Republican district in the nation (based on past election results) held by a Democrat. Republicans planned to throw big money at this district, but the inexperience of the challenger and Edwards’ strong lead in the polls has prompted the national party to take its resources elsewhere as unions work hard to turn out the Edwards vote.

Democrats have upset chances in a number of districts. In CD 23, several strong challengers, including the COPE-backed Albert Uresti, are taking on U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, (R). CD 23 is nominally a toss-up district, having recently been redrawn after the U.S. Supreme Court found that the mid-decade Republican re-redistricting had violated the Voting Rights Act in heavily Latino South Texas. In CD 14, Shane Sklar is running with labor’s backing against U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R), a libertarian with a small “l”. Labor-backed Democrats are running strongly against incumbents in other districts that were supposedly drawn to be 60 percent Republican or more.

In the lean years, Texas unions, central labor councils and constituency groups have worked valiantly in every election cycle to turn out the votes of union members, retirees and family members. The union vote invariably comes in at a higher percentage in Texas than the general population. But because union density is light in this right-to-work-for-less state, union members alone cannot determine the outcome in a statewide election. Moreover, the effects of redistricting are as pronounced here as anywhere in the nation.

As a result, even a national tidal wave for Democrats would reach only so far into Texas state and federal offices. 

No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since the 1994 elections, a streak rivaled by less than a handful of states. Statewide Democrats are running on pocket-change against many millions of dollars for Republican incumbents. In 2006, the best opportunity for a Democratic statewide victory lies in the governor’s race, where the incumbent, Rick Perry, has consistently drawn opposition from nearly two-thirds of poll respondents.

Problem is, it’s a five-way contest, with two significant independent candidates, Comptroller Carole Strayhorn and entertainer Kinky Friedman, joining the Democratic nominee and Texas AFL-CIO COPE endorsee, former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell. A Libertarian is also on the ballot.

Bell came to national attention when he filed the first ethics complaint against former U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, who was at the center of leadership power in the U.S. House. Since Bell’s action, DeLay resigned after being indicted on charges related to the financing of the 2002 Texas elections. (DeLay also is a focus of the investigation involving convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.)

Bell started the campaign with extraordinarily low name identification, but gradually has cut into Perry’s poll lead and established himself as the No. 1 challenger. In a crowded field and with no run-off election possible, the victor in this contest will likely have less than 40 percent of the vote.

Bell, who has quietly run a populist campaign that, among other things, calls for a higher minimum wage, expanded health care and an end to faulty privatization schemes, is the candidate with upside as the campaign enters its final weeks. He started in as weak a position as any Democratic nominee in state history and he has built support throughout the year. If one believes in the wisdom of crowds, it stands to reason that the large majority of voters who want Perry out but have not seriously examined Bell will look closely at him in the coming weeks. The TV debate helped. Now Bell has to take the next step.

If Bell can build momentum to the finish line, the contest won’t be Rick Perry’s to lose, but Bell’s to win.

The stakes in Texas may not be as dramatic as in the nation as a whole, but the opportunity for serious change in the Lone Star State is just as real in Congress, the state house and the governor’s mansion.

This portion of this website is paid for by the AFL-CIO Committee on Political Education Political Contributions Committee, 815 16th St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006, with voluntary contributions from union members and their families, and is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

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