by Tula Connell, Nov 7, 2006

Source: Pew Research Center
Union household support for Democratic candidates has increased over the past month, while declining among nonunion households.

There’s been a lot of jaw-boning over the past few days concerning new polling data that show congressional races tightening in favor of Republicans. Among them: A Nov. 5 Pew Research Center poll that finds Democrats hold a 48 percent to 40 percent lead among registered voters and a lead of 47 percent to 43 percent among likely voters.

In October, a similar Pew poll found the lead for Democrats among likely voters to be 50 percent to 39 percent and the lead for Democrats among registered voters 49 percent to 39 percent. The trend toward voting for Republicans increased more among women than men, with 4 percent more women than men saying they’d vote for Republicans in November than in October.

But buried in the Nov. 5 polling data is another set of figures not being reported by pundits in the mainstream media. The percentage of union household voters favoring Republicans actually has decreased. Support for Republicans in nonunion households went from 51 percent to 42 percent in support for Democrats in October to 47 percent support for Democrats and 43 percent for Republicans in November.

Meanwhile, union households in October favored Democrats over Republicans by 61 percent to 33 percent. In November, union households supported Democrats over Republicans by 63 percent to 28 percent.

Today, on Election Day alone, the AFL-CIO union movement will have 75,000 volunteers taking part in get-out-the-vote efforts nationwide. We will knock on 1.5 million doors, make 5.4 million phone calls and reach 1.8 million voters at worksites.

The union vote in key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania likely will be as much as 30 percent to 35 percent of the overall vote.

Stay tuned.

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