Dean Baker: Auto Manufacturing Gives Big Boost to Jobs Growth
We asked economist Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), to expand upon recent reports that show a marked improvement in the nation’s jobs picture. In January, 243,000 jobs were created and unemployment dropped significantly for some of the hardest-hit workers. Baker’s intepretation of the data presents a still-mixed economic picture, but one bright point stands out clearly: President Obama’s support of the U.S. auto industry has been key to improving job creation for America’s workers. Be sure to pick up a copy of Baker’s latest book, The End of Loser Liberalism: Making Markets Progressive.
Q.: As you’ve noted, the January drop in unemployment was especially sharp for African American and Latino workers. The jobless rate for black workers fell by 2.2 percentage points to 13.6 percent, the lowest level since March 2009. For Latino workers, the jobless rate dropped by 0.5 to 10.5 percent, the lowest since January 2009. What’s behind this good news?
A.: My best guess is that much of this is a statistical quirk. These numbers are always erratic and can and do jump around month to month. However, part of the drop is probably real. I suspect that with the African American population much of the story is related to the increase in manufacturing and construction employment, which is likely clustered in the Midwest. These are sectors that disproportionately employ African American workers.
The improvement for Latinos is less easily explained. Of course, many Latinos are employed in construction, but more in the West and South than Midwest, which has seen the biggest gains.
Anyhow, I suspect that part of the improvement in the employment picture is weather related. We had unusually warm weather across the Northeast/Midwest in December and January, which means that construction and manufacturing were not disrupted as much as usual. That would make it appear that we are adding jobs.
Q.: Employment in manufacturing and construction also showed strong growth in January. You attribute the construction job hike to unseasonably warm weather. But what about manufacturing? It’s been one area of job growth for several months now. What’s behind its resurgence and can it continue? Read the rest of this entry »
Median Income Down, Poverty Up
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More troubling news on the downward economic spiral of America’s working families. In 2010, median household income declined and the poverty rate increased, according to U.S. Census Bureau data announced this morning.
Running counter to the American tradition of ever-rising prosperity, real median household income in the United States declined by 2.3 percent from 2009 to 2010 and now stands at $49,445. Further:
The nation’s official poverty rate in 2010 was 15.1 percent, up from 14.3 percent in 2009—the third consecutive annual increase in the poverty rate. There were 46.2 million people in poverty in 2010, up from 43.6 million in 2009—the fourth consecutive annual increase and the largest number in the 52 years for which poverty estimates have been published.
Behind the bad data are two factors, according to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). First, the unemployment rate increased from 9.3 percent in 2009 to 9.6 percent in 2010. Second, long-term unemployment, or the percent unemployed 27 weeks or more, grew from 31.2 percent in 2009 to 43.3 percent in 2010.
Jobs, Anyone?
Roughly half of the workers who lost jobs during the recession are employed (51 percent), about one-third are unemployed (33 percent) and the remainder are not in the labor force, according to survey results released Sept. 1 by Rutgers University’s Heldrich Center for Workforce Development. Carl Van Horn, director of the Heldrich Center and a co-author of the study, said, “The workers we surveyed, who represent the views of millions of unemployed Americans,
are eager—if not desperate—for the government to create policies that will bring down high unemployment and grow the economy.
Meanwhile, a global competitiveness report finds the United States continues its decline for the third year in a row, falling one more place to fifth position,” after Switzerland, Singapore, Read the rest of this entry »
ZERO Jobs Added in August, Jobless Rate Stays at 9.1%
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The U.S. economy added no jobs in August—that’s ZERO jobs—and the nation’s unemployment rate remained at 9.1 percent, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data out this morning.
The August jobs report is the worst since September 2010. Some 14 million workers remain unemployed, but a total of some 26 million Americans are unemployed, underemployed or have stopped looking for work.
Employment increased primarily in two areas: health care by 30,000 and mining by 6,000. Employment in the information industry declined by 48,000 in August, with 45,000 workers at Verizon on strike. Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs and employment in construction, trade, transporation and other areas changed little over the month. Job loss in the public sector totaled 17,000 in August. Since employment peaked in September 2008, local government has lost 550,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate for adult men is 8.9 percent and 8 percent for women. Some 16.7 percent of African Americans and 11.3 percent of Hispanics are unemployed, with teenagers at 25.4 percent unemployment.
Jobs Rise by 151,000, Unemployment Stays at 9.6 Percent
Jobs increased by 151,000 in October and the unemployment rate remained the same as last month, at 9.6 percent, according to U.S. Department of Labor data out this morning. Other positive news: the unexpectedly modest jobs loss in state and local government, although economists say job losses in this sector will likely worsen in future months because of state and local budget challenges.
The increase is a significant jump from September, when 95,000 jobs were lost, and represents the minimum number of jobs needed to be created each month to keep up with the growth in the labor force. But to lower the nation’s unemployment rate to 6 percent by 2013, the economy needs to add 350,000 jobs a month.
AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka says:
Tuesday’s election results and today’s jobs numbers are a clarion call to the next Congress that job creation and fixing our economy must be the number one priority. With the unemployment rate stagnant at 9.6 percent, it’s no wonder people are angry, frustrated and disappointed. Despite a welcome increase of 151,000 jobs in October, nearly 15 million Americans are still unemployed. The unemployment rate has been essentially unchanged since May.
Unemployment Reaches 26-Year High of 9.7 Percent
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Some 216,000 U.S. jobs were cut in August, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data out today. That worsens the unofficial unemployment rate to 9.7 percent, the highest rate since June 1983. The rate was 9.4 percent in July.
If underemployed workers or those who want a job but have given up looking are counted, the broader U.S. unemployment rate stands at 16.8 percent, up from 16.3 percent last month. That means more than 25 million Americans need jobs or full-time work but cannot find it. Worse yet, there now are 5 million long-term unemployed workers, the worst such figure in any recent recession. That means there were nearly six workers looking for every job available.
The 216,000 job loss is the smallest monthly decline since last year. Employers cut 276,000 jobs in July, compared with an average of 691,000 per month in the first quarter.
There is some good news: The economic recovery package has created about 1.2 million jobs, according to an analysis by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). Without the stimulus package, the monthly job loss would have been double what it was just six months ago.
247,000 Jobs Lost in July; Without Recovery Package, Would Be Far Worse
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U.S. jobs lost in July totaled 247,000, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data out today, with the unofficial unemployment rate now at 9.4 percent compared with 9.5 percent in June, the first improvement in the pace of job loss since June 2008.
The July jobless rate, while much better than economists predicted, still means 14.5 million U.S. workers are without jobs. And if the underemployed or those who want a job but have given up looking are counted, the broader U.S. unemployment rate stands at 16.3 percent, more than 25 million Americans who need jobs or full-time work but cannot find it. Jobs were lost in all sectors, except for education, health care, leisure and government, which all experienced small gains.
More frightening, the July job figures would have been far worse without the economic recovery package, which has helped to slow the pace of job loss to less than half of what it was just six months ago. From May to July, job losses averaged 331,000 per month, compared with losses averaging 645,000 per month from November to April.
